Analysis | Focus is on Bill Belichick as NFL coaching carousel gets ready to spin

Some agents who represent coaches have said in recent weeks they expect two to four more head coaching jobs to become available. That could be conservative. Others in the sport have speculated there could be more.

There has been speculation practically all season about the status of Bill Belichick, whose six Super Bowl triumphs with the New England Patriots have given way to a frustrating existence without quarterback Tom Brady that has included three losing seasons and only one playoff appearance in four years. Patriots owner Robert Kraft has expressed his disappointment with this season’s on-field struggles, telling the league-owned NFL Network before a Nov. 12 defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in Germany, “This isn’t what we were expecting to happen this year.”

The Patriots have played better recently, leading some to wonder whether Kraft might be willing to retain Belichick with changes to the front office and coaching staff, if Belichick would agree to that. Belichick’s contract reportedly runs through next season.

But if Kraft and Belichick decide to part ways and Kraft wants to receive draft-pick compensation from another team interested in hiring Belichick in what amounts to a trade, the process might take a little while to play out.

Robert Kraft calls the Patriots’ struggles ‘really disappointing’

The Washington Commanders are widely expected to fire their coach, Ron Rivera, as part of sweeping organizational changes under the new ownership group led by Josh Harris. It was too late for Harris and his ownership partners to make major changes when NFL team owners voted July 20 to ratify the sale. Harris’s group gave everyone in the organization at least one season to prove themselves. The issue now is whether Harris’s group will make changes to both the football and business sides simultaneously or focus on football first and delay any moves on the business side.

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank has not said whether he will retain his coach, Arthur Smith.

There has been some speculation by media members that a team looking for a coach might seek to make a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers to be able to hire Mike Tomlin. Harris and Panthers owner David Tepper have been Steelers limited partners. Harris and David Blitzer, a member of Harris’s ownership group with the Commanders, had not sold their Steelers shares as of the NFL owners meeting last month, a person familiar with the situation said then. They must do so, under NFL rules, but they did not need to do so immediately.

The Steelers are well known for their head coaching continuity, so it’s not certain that they would part with Tomlin even if another team makes an effort to pry him away. They have had three head coaches since 1969 and have never had a losing season during Tomlin’s 17-year tenure. They remain in AFC playoff contention entering their regular season finale Saturday in Baltimore.

There also has been conjecture that the Patriots could attempt to trade for Tennessee Titans Coach Mike Vrabel, a former Patriots linebacker, if they do not retain Belichick. Some view Jerod Mayo, the Patriots’ linebackers coach and de facto defensive coordinator, as the likely successor, whenever Belichick exits.

New York Jets owner Woody Johnson has said he will retain his coach, Robert Saleh, and general manager, Joe Douglas, despite the team’s disappointing season. The Chicago Bears reportedly are increasingly likely to keep Matt Eberflus. It appears the New York Giants’ Brian Daboll and the New Orleans Saints’ Dennis Allen probably will be retained. But many coaching cycles include at least one unexpected dismissal.

The regular season ends Sunday. Awards are regular season awards, so here’s a quick assessment of one perspective with one weekend remaining.

MVP: Lamar Jackson … He has been the best player on the best team. He thoroughly outplayed the other leading contender, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, in the Ravens’ victory in Week 16. Then he played even better in Sunday’s lopsided triumph over the Miami Dolphins. Jackson was the MVP in the 2019 season, when the Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs but lost a divisional-round game at home to the Titans. They’ll have to hope for better this time around.

Coach of the year: Stefanski … The Browns have had four starting quarterbacks. They’ve lost Deshaun Watson, tailback Nick Chubb and offensive tackles Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Dawand Jones to season-ending injuries. But they’re headed to the playoffs, and they could be very dangerous once they get there. Stefanski deserves credit for that.

Offensive player of the year: Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey … Yes, it’s a cop-out to split the award. But how do you choose? They’ve both been phenomenal.

Defensive player of the year: Myles Garrett … Garrett edges out fellow top pass rushers such as Micah Parsons of Dallas, T.J. Watt of Pittsburgh and Maxx Crosby of Las Vegas. Any would be deserving. And there should be some consideration given to Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland after he set a single-season record with five touchdowns on interception returns.

Comeback player of the year: Damar Hamlin … This comes down to a choice between Hamlin and Joe Flacco and one question: Coming back from what? Flacco has been terrific for the Browns, turning back the clock after no team would sign him for much of the season. But Hamlin must be recognized here for resuming his NFL career after collapsing and suffering cardiac arrest on the field in Cincinnati during a January game last season.

Offensive rookie of the year: C.J. Stroud … It’s a toss-up between Stroud and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua. Stroud is the NFL’s sixth-rated passer and gets the nod here over Nacua despite his 1,445 receiving yards.

Defensive rookie of the year: Jalen Carter … Carter fell to the Eagles with the No. 9 selection in April’s draft because of concerns about off-field issues, including his no-contest plea in March to charges of racing and reckless driving in connection with the Jan. 15 crash in which two people with ties to the Georgia football program were killed. But it always was clear he was talented enough to be one of the top few picks. And that’s how he has played.

Ravens and the No. 1 seed

The Ravens clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will have the AFC’s lone opening-round bye and home-field advantage through the AFC championship game if they advance that far. They didn’t get that far when they last were the No. 1 seed in the 2019 season, losing a divisional-round game at home to the Titans.

Lamar Jackson shines again as Ravens throttle Dolphins, clinch No. 1 seed

Harbaugh was asked Sunday whether he would consult with other coaches about his team’s postseason preparations. He mentioned Kansas City Chiefs Coach Andy Reid, his onetime boss in Philadelphia, and Belichick as his prospective resources on the topic.

“Andy’s my guy,” Harbaugh said. “It’s kind of hard to call him, though, because he’s also in the playoffs. He probably won’t give me any good answers. I’ll probably talk to Coach Belichick. But really, I think you’ve just got to talk to your guys, talk to guys like [linebacker Roquan Smith], talk to guys like Lamar and come up with a plan. … We remember ’19. … It’s not something we’re going to forget. It’s one more thing that kind of makes you who you are at this point in time.”

The Bears have locked up the No. 1 selection in the 2024 draft, courtesy of possessing the Panthers’ pick as part of the trade that enabled Carolina to move up to choose quarterback Bryce Young with the top selection last year.

The Bears have an interesting decision to make.

They could retain the top pick, use it on the quarterback of their choice — probably Southern California’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye — and trade Justin Fields.

Or they could remain committed to Fields as their franchise quarterback. In that case, they could trade the No. 1 pick, gain additional selections and move down — but perhaps not too far — to build around Fields. If they trade down only a few spots, they perhaps still could land Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Fields has made progress this season and enters the finale with 16 touchdown passes, nine interceptions and a passer rating of 85.8. The Bears have won four of their past five games to improve to 7-9. That has bolstered the case for them to keep Eberflus as their coach. And it could be an argument in favor of staying the course with Fields at quarterback.

But if the Bears believe Williams is a can’t-miss star, they have to take him. It is a decision that will go a long way toward determining the franchise’s level of on-field success for a decade or so.

The Browns are in the AFC playoff field, having clinched their spot with a 37-20 triumph Thursday night over the Jets in Cleveland. They have the look of a team that could be a threat to the conference’s top contenders.

The Browns lead the league in total defense. And the offense has been perfectly functional with Flacco at quarterback. He threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in the first half Thursday even without wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was on the inactive list because of a heel injury. Flacco managed only 13 second-half passing yards, but the outcome was well in hand.

Flacco gives the Browns a viable passing game. His pass-catchers are good enough when Cooper, wideout Elijah Moore and tight end David Njoku are in the lineup. Garrett is a game-wrecker on defense, and the Browns are capable of shutting down anybody.

This is their second postseason appearance in four seasons under Stefanski. When they reached the playoffs in the 2020 season, Stefanski had to watch the Browns’ opening-round victory at Pittsburgh from his basement at home after testing positive for the coronavirus. They raced to a 28-0 lead over the Steelers in the first quarter before holding on to prevail, 48-37. Those Browns then lost a divisional-round game in Kansas City to the Chiefs.

That playoff appearance came with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. He was in his third season after being chosen by the Browns with the top pick in the 2018 draft. The Browns went a combined 15-19 the previous two seasons. They cast aside Mayfield before the 2022 season by trading a king’s ransom of draft picks to the Texans for Watson and signing him to a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract. That has not worked out. But Flacco has been the quarterback solution for the Browns that Watson has not been, at least to this point, and they will be an intriguing team to watch during the postseason.

Harbaugh, his new agent and the Raiders?

Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh hired agent Don Yee to represent him, a person familiar with the matter confirmed after ESPN first reported the news. That is an interesting move as Harbaugh reportedly contemplates signing a contract extension with Michigan that would prohibit him from returning to the NFL for at least a year while potentially also evaluating his NFL head coaching prospects in what has become a practically annual ritual.

Yee is a well-connected agent who represents Denver Broncos Coach Sean Payton and Tom Brady, among others.

The NFL might honor a Jim Harbaugh suspension — but that’s not certain

Multiple people familiar with the leaguewide head coach hiring process said they believe Harbaugh may have hired Yee with the possibility of being considered for the Raiders’ job in mind. Raiders owner Mark Davis must decide whether to retain his interim coach, Antonio Pierce.

It is possible but not definite that the NFL would honor all or part of any NCAA-imposed suspension of Harbaugh resulting from the investigation of allegations of improper scouting and sign-stealing, people familiar with the situation have said.